Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.030374 0.034568 0.039165 0.044583 0.050803 0.057728 0.066034
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.023303 0.028861 0.035519 0.044106 0.054925 0.068154 0.085630
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.020118 0.026378 0.034339 0.045258 0.059928 0.079070 0.106129
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.017328 0.023780 0.032390 0.044800 0.062365 0.086539 0.122674
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.015852 0.022639 0.032086 0.046313 0.067403 0.097837 0.145668
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.013797 0.020386 0.029895 0.044764 0.067704 0.102200 0.158837
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.012328 0.018789 0.028424 0.044020 0.068982 0.107972 0.174642
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.010869 0.017032 0.026498 0.042306 0.068462 0.110754 0.185801
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.010353 0.016678 0.026683 0.043919 0.073409 0.122784 0.213751
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.009884 0.016340 0.026842 0.045472 0.078373 0.135313 0.244050
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.009457 0.016022 0.026985 0.046986 0.083388 0.148416 0.276952
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.008764 0.015181 0.026153 0.046686 0.085098 0.155733 0.299836
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.008103 0.014351 0.025290 0.046289 0.086674 0.163139 0.324213
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007507 0.013583 0.024470 0.045891 0.088214 0.170674 0.349926
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.007193 0.013299 0.024497 0.047088 0.092960 0.184972 0.391515
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006692 0.012616 0.023711 0.046610 0.094280 0.192476 0.419488
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.006486 0.012477 0.023947 0.048187 0.099982 0.209688 0.471296
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.005934 0.011613 0.022689 0.046572 0.098749 0.211927 0.489083
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.005525 0.010999 0.021872 0.045796 0.099235 0.217948 0.516530
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.005051 0.010213 0.020640 0.044009 0.097282 0.218255 0.530123
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.004950 0.010189 0.020982 0.045691 0.103369 0.237736 0.594255
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.004846 0.010150 0.021284 0.047311 0.109482 0.257986 0.663319
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.004741 0.010099 0.021558 0.048889 0.115669 0.279140 0.737918